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Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? - Carbon Brief

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Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? - Carbon Brief

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このページは、気候モデルがどの程度正確に地球温暖化を予測しているかを分析しています。気候モデルの精度や過去の予測結果について検討し、さまざまなシナリオに基づく温暖化の進行についての理解を深めることを目的としています。また、これらのモデルの限界や不確実性についても言及し、政策決定にどのように影響を与えるかを探ります。

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このページは、過去40年間にわたり、気候モデルを用いて将来の地球温暖化を予測してきた科学者たちの取り組みについて述べています。気候モデルは、大気物理学や生物地球化学に基づき、地球の気候変化の理解に重要な役割を果たしています。Carbon Briefでは1973年以降の気候モデルの予測を収集し、過去と未来の気温の予測精度を評価しています。1970年から2016年の表面温度の増加については、予測モデルが実際のデータと大きく乖離していないことが示されています。過去の温暖化を評価する際には、温室効果ガスの濃度や火山活動などの要因を考慮できるため、モデルの評価に役立ちますが、未来の予測は不確実性が伴います。

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Afternoon sunlight casts long shadows from thunderhead anvils down onto southern Borneo Credit: NASA Archive / Alamy Stock Photo
CLIMATE MODELLING 5 October 2017 17:00

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Afternoon sunlight casts long shadows from thunderhead anvils down onto southern Borneo Credit: NASA Archive / Alamy Stock Photo
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