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Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? - Carbon Brief
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このページは、気候モデルがどの程度正確に地球温暖化を予測しているかを分析しています。気候モデルの精度や過去の予測結果について検討し、さまざまなシナリオに基づく温暖化の進行についての理解を深めることを目的としています。また、これらのモデルの限界や不確実性についても言及し、政策決定にどのように影響を与えるかを探ります。
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このページは、過去40年間にわたり、気候モデルを用いて将来の地球温暖化を予測してきた科学者たちの取り組みについて述べています。気候モデルは、大気物理学や生物地球化学に基づき、地球の気候変化の理解に重要な役割を果たしています。Carbon Briefでは1973年以降の気候モデルの予測を収集し、過去と未来の気温の予測精度を評価しています。1970年から2016年の表面温度の増加については、予測モデルが実際のデータと大きく乖離していないことが示されています。過去の温暖化を評価する際には、温室効果ガスの濃度や火山活動などの要因を考慮できるため、モデルの評価に役立ちますが、未来の予測は不確実性が伴います。
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Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? - Carbon Brief Sections Science Climate modelling Extreme weather Health and Security Ice IPCC Nature Oceans People Temperature Energy China energy Coal Emissions Nuclear Oil and gas Other technologies Renewables Technology Policy China Policy EU policy International policy Other national policy Rest of world policy UK policy UN climate talks US Policy In Focus Country profiles DeBriefed Explainers Factchecks Features Guest posts Infographics Interviews Media analysis State of the climate Translations Webinars Daily Brief MENU About us China Briefing Comments Policy Contact Us Cookies Policy Cropped Daily Briefing DeBriefed Energy Coal Emissions Global emissions Rest of world emissions UK emissions EU emissions Nuclear Oil and gas Renewables Technology China energy Global South Climate Database Home In focus Country profiles Explainers Factchecks Features Guest posts Infographics Interviews Media analysis State of the climate Translations Webinars Nature Food and farming Nature policy COP15 Montreal COP16 Cali Plants and forests Wildlife Newsletters Newsletters Policy China Policy EU policy International policy Rest of world policy UK policy UN climate talks COP21 Paris COP22 Marrakech COP23 Bonn COP24 Katowice COP25 Madrid COP26 Glasgow COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh COP28 Dubai COP29 Baku COP30 Belém US Policy Privacy Policy Science Climate modelling Extreme weather Attribution Drought El Niño Floods Heatwaves Storms Wildfires Geoengineering Ice Antarctic Arctic Glaciers Sea ice IPCC Oceans Marine life Ocean acidification Ocean warming Sea level rise People Human security Public health Public opinion Risk and adaptation Science communication Temperature 1.5C Carbon budgets Climate sensitivity GHGs and aerosols Global temperature Hiatus Negative emissions Rest of world temperature Tipping points UK temperature
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Get an email round-up of all the key articles and studies selected by Carbon Brief. Find out more about each of our newsletters. Subscribe Loading... By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our Privacy Policy Daily Briefing DeBriefed Cropped China Briefing Subscribe Loading... Thank you! You have successfully signed up to our newsletter(s). Receive a Daily or Weekly summary of the most important articles direct to your inbox, just enter your email below. By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our Privacy Policy . Daily Briefing Weekly Briefing China Cropped --> Science Climate modelling Extreme weather Attribution Drought El Niño Floods Heatwaves Storms Wildfires Ice Antarctic Arctic Glaciers Sea ice IPCC Oceans Marine life Ocean acidification Ocean warming Sea level rise People Human security Public health Public opinion Risk and adaptation Science communication Temperature Hiatus 1.5C Carbon budgets Climate sensitivity Geoengineering GHGs and aerosols Global temperature Negative emissions Rest of world temperature Tipping points UK temperature Global South Climate Database Energy Coal Emissions EU emissions Global emissions Rest of world emissions UK emissions Nuclear Oil and gas Renewables Technology Policy China Policy EU policy International policy Rest of world policy UK policy UN climate talks COP21 Paris COP22 Marrakech COP23 Bonn COP24 Katowice COP25 Madrid COP26 Glasgow COP27 Sharm el-Sheikh COP28 Dubai COP29 Baku COP30 Belém US Policy Nature Nature policy COP16 Cali Food and farming Plants and forests Wildlife In focus Country profiles Explainers Factchecks Features Guest posts Infographics Interviews Media analysis Translations Webinars Daily Briefing Afternoon sunlight casts long shadows from thunderhead anvils down onto southern Borneo Credit: NASA Archive / Alamy Stock Photo CLIMATE MODELLING 5 October 2017 17:00
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05.10.17 Climate modelling By:
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10.05.17 Zeke Hausfather 05.10.2017 | 5:00pm Climate modelling Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?
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Afternoon sunlight casts long shadows from thunderhead anvils down onto southern Borneo Credit: NASA Archive / Alamy Stock Photo
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